WASHINGTON (AP) -
A year after the Navy SEAL raid that killed
Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaida that carried out the Sept. 11 attacks is
essentially gone but its affiliates remain a threat to America, U.S.
counterterrorist officials say.
Core al-Qaida's new leader,
Ayman al-Zawahri, still aspires to attack the U.S., but his
Pakistan-based group is scrambling to survive, under fire from CIA drone
strikes and lying low for fear of another U.S. raid. That has lessened
the threat of another complex attack like a nuclear dirty bomb or a
biological weapon, the officials say.
Al-Qaida's loyal offshoots
are still dangerous, especially Yemen's al-Qaida in the Arabian
Peninsula, or AQAP. While not yet able to carry out complex attacks
inside the U.S., such groups are capable of hitting Western targets
overseas and are building armies and expertise while plotting violence,
according to senior U.S. counterterrorist officials who briefed
reporters Friday.
"Each will seek
opportunities to strike Western interests in its operating area, but
each group will have different intent and ability to execute those
plans," said Robert Cardillo, a deputy director at the Office of the
Director of National Intelligence. The other officials were authorized
to speak only on condition of anonymity.
The shift from a single,
deadly group to a more amorphous threat may not seem much of an
improvement. But the U.S. believes that the bin Laden raid and continued
U.S. counterterrorist action have reduced the chance of a
sophisticated, multipronged attack on the U.S. like the attacks of Sept.
11 or the deadly bombings in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005.
An attack with weapons of
mass destruction - chemical, biological or nuclear - by any
al-Qaida-related terror group also seems less likely in the coming year,
Cardillo said.
Al-Qaida's Zawahri has not
managed to harness multiple groups into a cohesive force focused on a
single, catastrophic attack, officials said.
Al-Qaida's key affiliates
in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and North Africa have pledged allegiance to
Zawahri but, unimpressed with his leadership, "have not offered the
deference they gave bin Laden," Cardillo said. Zawahri has a reputation
as an abrasive manager and a less than charismatic speaker.
That loss of a single,
charismatic voice likely means "multiple voices will provide inspiration
for the movement," leading to a bout of soul-searching as to what the
splinter groups want to target and why, Cardillo said.
"There will be a vigorous debate about local versus global jihad within and among terror organizations," he said.
Another potentially
positive sign is al-Qaida's failure to hijack the Arab Spring revolt in
Egypt, Tunisia or Libya. On the negative side, the officials said,
al-Qaida is working hard to co-opt rebels in Syria.
If the political wrangling
in any of the post-revolt nations fails to produce stable, responsive
governments, al-Qaida and its ilk may be able to seize the void, the
officials said.
That's what has occurred in
Yemen, where AQAP has taken full advantage of the local government's
preoccupation fighting multiple political opponents. AQAP has grown in
size and territory covered despite constant and expanded targeting by
Yemeni and U.S. counterterrorist forces, the officials said.
Another threat they cited:
Homegrown extremists, either lone actors or small groups inspired by
al-Qaida, who remain intent on committing violence.
The officials also noted
that every time U.S. counterterrorist forces strike, they must take care
to avoid everything from civilian casualties to hitting the wrong
target, lest the blowback produce more enemies.
"The key challenge will be
balancing aggressive counterterrorism operations, with the risk of
exacerbating the anti-Western global agenda" of al-Qaida and its
affiliates, Cardillo said.
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