Based on preliminary 2012 PJM Interconnection analysis, the Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline may be canceled this fall.
PJM is the regional grid operator for 13 states, West Virginia included, and Washington, D.C. Because transmission takes years to develop, PJM conducts annual forward-looking analyses to support planning that maintains grid reliability.
Two modeling tests in this year's Regional Transmission Expansion Planning process have given important preliminary results, according to the PATH project analysis update presented on July 12 to PJM's Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee.
The preliminary results are important because they differ from previous analyses that supported the construction of PATH, the $2 billion transmission line proposed to be built from near Charleston northeast into Maryland.
PJM first directed construction of PATH in 2007 to address anticipated grid reliability problems, with a stated need date of 2012. The date by which the line was needed was pushed back several years running and, in 2011, PJM suspended the project pending further analysis.
The important preliminary results come from a thermal test and a voltage test.
"The thermal test has to do with overloading the lines, getting them hot so they sag too much," said PJM spokesman Ray Dotter. "We do a 15-year look-out, and that look-out says they don't see any thermal overloads."
The 2010 modeling showed numerous thermal overloads.
Also, "the previous (2010) analysis identified potential voltage problems in the mid-Atlantic when there were high power flows," Dotter said. "The preliminary result of the current year analysis no longer identifies any voltage problems in the mid-Atlantic."
While preliminary, these results, Dotter acknowledged, are the opposite of the conditions that led originally to the recommendation to build PATH.
Several broad conditions have changed, he said.
Demand remains down due to the economic slowdown. At the same time, new generation has become available and demand response — commitments large users make to curtail their power use during peak use periods — has grown.
The analysis will be finalized before PJM planning staff makes recommendations and those are communicated to the PJM Board, according to Dotter. That will lead to a decision on PATH's fate.
"The board intended that after this year's study is done, there would be some resolution: either to move ahead or remove it from consideration," he said.
It will happen sometime this fall, he said.
Dotter noted that this affirms the integrity of PJM's planning process.
"We've always said that we do the study, the numbers tell us what they tell us, and we come up with a solution," he said. "If things change, we change the recommendation. You see that evolving here. It's based on the best facts that we have."
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