Here’s why we are taking the over.
The Nationals' Patrick Corbin is a pitcher we targeted early in the season, but he seemed to get back on track in May with four consecutive starts with only two earned runs allowed. Corbin went off the rails again last week, though, vs. the Royals, allowing six earned runs across 6⅓ innings. Corbin’s xERA for the season is now at 5.76 -- nearly a full point higher than his actual ERA of 4.88 -- and his hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate are all in the bottom 15% of the league. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are averaging the third-most runs per game this season (5.43) and six runs per game across the past two weeks. They have the ninth-best OPS vs. left-handed pitchers, the third-best ISO, and they are batting .279 with a .346 OBP. It’s unlikely Corbin will be able to hold down this Dodgers lineup.
On the other side of this matchup is Noah Syndergaard for Los Angeles. Syndergaard’s ERA is even worse than Corbin’s at 6.28, and his xERA is 5.23. His hard-hit rate is in the bottom half of the league, and his K rate is in the bottom 12%. Quite simply, Thor seems to have lost his hammer. We targeted the over when Syndergaard pitched last week vs. the Rays, and it cashed early for us. Though the Nationals are a long way from the Rays offensively, they should be able to get in their knocks. We also singled out Syndergaard because of how much opposing teams have had success stealing when he pitches. Last week the Rays stole four bases in their matchup vs. the Dodgers, and it could be wise to target the value for another stolen base prop today. In his career, Syndergaard has allowed a 92% success rate, with a base being swiped every 4⅓ innings he has pitched. It could be worth taking a chance on C.J. Abrams or Lane Thomas to steal a base for a nice payout.
Both bullpens have been struggling the last two weeks, with the Dodgers owning a 5.46 ERA and the Nationals owning a 4.91.
The Dodgers covered the run line in the first two games of this series, but I will stick with the simple over bet today, even though games at Dodgers Stadium are averaging only 8.88 runs this season.
The Bet: Over 9.5 runs
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