A few scattered showers tonight as we prepare to welcome in 2022. Just after midnight we’ll see a system with very gusty winds (30-40mph+), heavy rain, and even a rumble of thunder push through. Severe weather threat is minimum (1 out of 5 risk) but not out of the question. Stay weather aware tonight while celebrating the new year.
Through the rest of Saturday, there are a few things to keep in mind. Initially, we will dry out. From the morning to the evening showers and storms will come to an end outside of a few stragglers. In that time we’ll watch winds pick up, with gusts up to 30mph starting during the afternoon and growing in strength overnight. Highs stay in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Part two of this system will work through overnight and into Sunday morning and provide us with our secondary risk for severe weather as the cold front swings through. Our biggest concern by far is strong damaging winds, both underneath storms and due to the cold front itself. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts should top out around 40mph, with stronger gusts possible in the highest elevations. Storms overnight could also produce some small hail and due to the nature of the front, we do have a very small risk of an isolated tornado.
Widespread flooding is not likely during this but, as the second line of storms works its way through we will have to watch poor drainage and flood-prone areas. Water is likely to collect due to how fast the rain is expected to fall, so if you live in one of these areas plan accordingly for Saturday night.
Sunday with our cold front now out to the east, we’ll see colder air begin to push in as winds shift out of the northwest during the day. It is likely we’ll see our high temperatures during the morning with temperatures dropping from the 50s to the 30s through the afternoon. A few lingering rain showers are possible in the morning before temperatures fall.
We’ll see a second wave of low pressure develop behind our exiting front Sunday evening into early Monday morning. This will bring the chance for some rain, and wintry mix initially across our southern and eastern counties, and snow to the higher elevations and areas west of the mountains Sunday night. Everyone will quickly transition to snow as the wave pushes out to the coast. Accumulations will be greatest in the higher elevations and west which spent more time below freezing, with minimal accumulations expected east of the mountains. Regardless slick and slow travel will affect most out the door Monday.
The rest of Monday looks chilly, with clouds slowly clearing and sunnier skies returning. Highs in the 30s are expected.
Tuesday looks dry and seasonable across much of the area with more sunshine on the way. Highs will be in the low 40s, with lows returning to the 20s overnight.
Wednesday looks to follow in Tuesday’s footsteps with a seasonable if not slightly above average day filled with sun. A few passing clouds will be the most exciting weather-related event of the day. Lows overnight fall back to the low 30s and upper 20s.
In the extended forecast, our next potential weather maker lies waiting. For now, it looks fairly similar to the set-ups we have this week. Warming up quickly beforehand with a big quick cool down afterward. The question is after this one, does the cold last? Be sure to check back over the next few days as we get the answer.
As a reminder, the Fall Burn Ban is in effect until December 31 for West Virginia. Take the time to remember the rules, and be sure to use common sense this Fall.
TONIGHT (NEW YEARS EVE):
Sct Rain leads to strong storms overnight. Lows in the 50s
Rain, heavy at times. Watch for flooding. Highs in the 50s and 60s.
Rain in the morning, snow showers possible in the evening. Highs in the 50s but falling fast.
Cooler with snow early. Trace to 1″. Highs in the upper 30s
Drying out, but cold. Highs in the 30s.
Drier, warmer. Highs in the 30s and 40s.
Overnight rain. Highs in the 40s.
Snow? Looking colder. Highs in the 30s.
Morning snow. Drying out and cold. Highs in the 30s.
Clearing up, Sun returns. Highs in the 40s.