Hot again, afternoon storms


DISCUSSION: Our afternoon looks to bring a bit more rainfall to our area. As atmospheric pressure starts to lower, we will be a bit more unstable across the region. An upper level disturbance will pass to our north, possibly bringing a few stronger storms to the area.

Day planner for Tuesday.

At the moment, all of us are under a marginal risk for severe weather, so we will keep a close eye out for any severe weather headed our way, though it shouldn’t be too bad. We still won’t get much of a break from the heat, as highs are still expected in the mid to upper 80s. There will still be plenty of dry time. Storms look to be isolated to scattered across the region and mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

The biggest threat to our region would be wind gusts. Right now, it looks like we’ll see a handful of stronger storms try to roll in. Even if they do not become warmed, they will drop a good deal of heavy rain and be a bit gusty. If we can get the storms to become gusty enough, isolated power outages will be possible. The best chance for development will be in the mountains, although storms are possible anywhere.

A marginal risk for severe weather is in place this afternoon.

Models are suggesting a more robust round of rain on Wednesday and possibly into Thursday with the passage of a cold front. This could be enough activity to lead to some isolated high water issues. We will have been slowly saturating our region through the week. It’s something that needs to be monitored once storms start to fire off. The bright side to this cold front is that it will finally give us some relief from the heat, as our temperatures will drop closer to average for this time of year. High temperatures on Wednesday will still likely be in the mid 80s.

By Thursday afternoon, we will begin to shift our wind direction and try to get some drier air in. Forecast high temperatures are closer to average, with many of us struggling to make it past 80 degrees. Increased cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms are to blame for the lower temperatures.

Despite a slight drop in forecast highs, the moisture does not move quite as quickly. It is still going to be rather unsettled through the later part of the day. We may finally get a break in the rain and humidity by dinner time on Thursday. We will clear out from west to east. Lows could be a bit cooler into Friday and fog will be dense in places.

The forecast for Friday into the weekend will be dependent on the motion of this front once it passes through our area. At the moment, the models are showing 2 different solutions. The American model wants to push the front far enough to our south to where we’d be enjoying dry, sunny conditions into the weekend while the European model has the front stalling out and keeping us unsettled at times during Friday and Saturday. As new data rolls in throughout the week, we will have a better idea of how the weekend will look for our area.

Either way, we should end up a bit cooler. Forecast highs heading into the weekend fall into the 70s. With a couple of showers or storms still in the forecast for Friday, it might not be a bad idea to keep an eye on the weather for Friday evening. Expect a similar outlook for Saturday, though Sunday will be a bit more unsettled.

Showers are back in the forecast to kick off next week. We keep things just a bit cooler with forecast highs in the upper 70s. Believe it or not, this is actually average for this time of year. The long range pattern does not look to favor long-duration warmth or cool spells. In other words, expect things to be close to average as we finish off the month.

August has brought us plenty more 80 degree days and humidity alongside it. As we approach the late summer season, stormy weather remains a hazard on our radar. At this point in the year, our atmosphere is very warm at the surface as well as aloft, which usually helps us steer clear of too much severe weather. However, our attention will remain focused on potential flooding and high water with any stronger systems that move through the region. By the time the middle of September rolls around, we increase our chances of some more robust fronts – and big cool downs after they pass through.

Your 10 Day Forecast

A bit more rain possible. Highs in the 80s.
Drying out. Some fog here or there. Lows in the upper 60s.
Scattered showers. Highs in the 80s.
Looking wetter with highs in the 80s.
Rain possible earlier, trying to dry later. Highs in the 70s.
Looking dry. Noticeably less humid. Highs in the 70s. 
Still fairly quiet. Highs in the 80s. 
Not much going on. Highs in the 80s.
Some showers. Highs in the 70s.
A handful or showers. Highs near 80.

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