Staying warm and muggy with a chance for thunderstorms

Weather

DISCUSSION:  The air today feels very warm and heavy, an indication that we have plenty of moisture in the atmosphere once again. This is one of the key ingredients in sustaining stronger thunderstorms, and we are monitoring the chance for more severe weather this evening.

Most of the viewing area remains under a marginal risk for severe weather, with a slight risk off to the west. As more storms continue to propagate towards our area from the west, there is a chance one or two of those storms could meet severe criteria. Main threats with any stronger storms will be damaging winds and hail.

Passing showers and weak rumbles of thunder are expected through the overnight hours, though the severe threat will be much lower without the help of the daytime heat.. Lows remain quite mild. Lots of us will still be in the 60s by the time we reach daybreak on Tuesday. Our nights of open windows and cool conditions are over for now – instead, we keep the humidity high.

Generally, this will set the pace for the rest of the work week as well. Tuesday brings another day with highs in the 70s and more shower and thunderstorm chances. As remnant boundaries roll through, they will be enough to fire off more thunderstorms. As moisture remains plentiful, some of these thunderstorms may bring torrential downpours. We also could see a few stronger storms later in the day on Tuesday.

Wednesday brings more of the same. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be gusty or bring some hail with them. High temperatures will again top out in the 70s with plenty of humidity.

We will have to watch flood prone areas throughout the week. As we add more showers, the ground becomes more saturated and flooding becomes more likely. While widespread flooding is not something we are expecting, we will have to monitor all rivers, streams, creeks and low laying/poor drainage areas. Flood watches are a possibility later this week.

Thursday may be slightly drier, but even so, bring the umbrellas with you. More showers and thunderstorms are expected later in the morning and in the afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the 70s. Humidity holds on through Thursday and into Friday.

By the end of the week, we should start to break this pattern. We look generally more clear by later in the day on Friday, and on Saturday we might make it through the day without needing the umbrellas at all! Still, we need our pattern to become a bit more progressive to actually get a dry day or two here. We’re watching.

A low pressure system rolling through the mountain west will start chugging along and move into our region late this weekend and early next week. This will likely bring another round of heavier showers and thunderstorms to the area. Be prepared for more unsettled conditions moving forward.

More warmth appears likely for second half of June. Average highs continue to climb through the month, with averages into the upper 70s as we approach July. Humidity will start to hang out in the Two Virginias, bringing a more summer-like feeling to the region.


TONIGHT:
Passing showers. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 60s.
TUESDAY:
More rain. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY:
Looking unsettled with highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY:
More showers with highs in the 70s. 
FRIDAY:
Showers possible. Highs in the 70s. 
SATURDAY:
Looking drier. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY:
Showers possible. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY:
Showers possible. Highs in the 70s.

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