Storms, some strong, through the day


DISCUSSION: Our first round of storms has come to an end. At this point, we are battling cloud cover and an attempt to warm up.

There are two possible outcomes today. The first would feature a lot of cloud cover sticking around, making it difficult to really warm things up. This would cut off a good bit of our energy for storm development in the afternoon, resulting in lower severe weather chances. We would still see some rain and gusty storms, but the chances of those storms breaching severe limits would be much smaller. The focus would shift to the threats of frequent lightning and localized high water in this scenario.

The second outcome for this afternoon would be redevelopment of showers and storms after a few hours of sunshine. This would build a good bit more energy in, bringing back that severe weather threat quickly. Wind gusts would be the biggest concern with strong to severe storms, though other types of severe weather cannot be ruled out. Localized high water would still be a concern if this is the scenario that unfolds.

The severe threats for today are mostly focused on gusty wind and heavy rain.

What will likely happen is something in between. Based off of the latest trends and the fact that we still have some limited energy to use in spite of clouds, a handful of stronger storms should be anticipated this afternoon. The best chance for a severe warned storm will be in the vicinity of US 460 and US 52, along with areas south. These spots have seen the least amount of activity so far, meaning this is and will be a bit more energy to tap into here.

Strong storms are possible this afternoon, especially south.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has most of us under a marginal risk, with a handful of spots south of US 460 under a slight risk. An active weather day is expected, especially in our southern counties. Even if we do not see a severe warned storm, heavy rain and lots of lightning will be experienced.

After sunset, a few more storms will roll through as the front passes. Our severe threat diminishes pretty quickly after sunset. Rain will become progressively lighter, until we end up with some lighter showers closer to sunrise. Lows are expected to remain mild with many places struggling to drop below 70 degrees.

A handful of showers and storms will be possible on Wednesday, especially in the mountains. We will have just enough energy and forcing to fire off a few isolated to scattered showers and storms. Clouds remain plentiful and sunshine will be scarce. No severe weather is expected. Rain rates will be less impressive than on Tuesday, thanks to a slight decrease in moisture. Highs will still be near 80.

A reinforcing front is in the cards for Thursday. Overall, shower chances remain low, especially since we will not have a ton of moisture to back up our front. At the end of the day, though, it is still a front rolling through. A handful of showers, especially in the mountains, cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will remain fairly mild as we warm back up into the 80s. Humidity will be noticeably less apparent by the late evening.

State Fair Forecast

Bigger improvements are made for Friday. There are a lot of events going around the region Friday, so it’s a perfect time to bring back that sunshine! Temperatures will top out slightly above average for most. At this time, it looks like we will be just a bit too dry to support even isolated pop ups. Humidity remains low. If we clear the clouds quickly enough, there’s a chance that we fall into the 60s before midnight. A light jacket might not be a bad idea!

High pressure ultimately looks to win out by the time we make it into the weekend. Temperatures should be close to normal for this time of year, in the low 80s. It looks like we should be 2 for 2 on great weekends to enjoy the State Fair, and we know many out there will be eager to hop on their favorite rides one last time before it comes to a close.

Sunday may become a bit more unsettled late in the day. There is still some model disagreement on the actual timing of our next system, but rain chances will definitely be on the rise. Highs return to the mid 80s and humidity spikes again. Some showers or thunderstorms might be in the cards for Sunday evening.

Monday will bring a batch of rain through. It’s a bit too early to get into the finer details of the forecast, but we are looking increasingly unsettled. Highs on Monday will be back in the 80s. Humidity remains high.

Some isolated showers will be possible Tuesday. If our front clears out quickly late Monday, we start off a bit unsettled and bring back afternoon sun. If not, we could end up with some spotty afternoon showers. We will iron out the details as we get closer.

August is bound to bring us plenty more 80 degree days and humidity alongside it. As we approach the late summer season, stormy weather remains a hazard on our radar. At this point in the year, our atmosphere is very warm at the surface as well as aloft, which usually helps us steer clear of too much severe weather. However, our attention will remain focused on potential flooding and high water with any stronger systems that move through the region.

A quieter weekend is on the way.

Storms likely, some strong. Highs in the upper 80s. 
Some weaker showers and storms. Lows generally above 70 degrees.
Rain continues in the morning. Highs in the 80s. 
Drying out. Highs in the 80s. 
Looking drier. Highs in the 80s. 
Looking quiet. Highs in the 80s. 
Some showers return. Highs in the 80s. 
Rain possible. Highs in the 80s. 
Rain possible. Highs in the 80s.

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